The end of the Orbán system

141 SEATS! I could hardly believe it! What just happened?

For me, the past two weeks have been absolutely extraordinary. Let me start at the beginning: several foreign journalists contacted me for interviews about the Hungarian election. In the end, I spoke to a Danish, a Romanian, and a German journalist between April 4 and 13. What was interesting was that the closer we got to April 12, the more optimistic my comments became. On April 4 I was still saying that “we will probably see record turnout and a solid Tisza victory,” and by the 11th I was saying that “there is a real chance Tisza will win a two-thirds majority with turnout of 75–80%.” And lo and behold, that is exactly what happened. Nearly 3.4 million people said enough was enough — they wanted no more of Orbán.

What shocked me most was that Orbán simply congratulated Péter Magyar when 55% of the votes had been counted. There was no uproar, no blaming Ukraine — that was it, it was over. Unfortunately, I am certain things would not have gone this smoothly with a closer result. I was also struck by the joy in the streets; it suddenly became clear just how many hundreds of thousands of people had experienced this system as a prison. Since I started working, I had to spend 5,797 days of my life under this system. Admittedly, there was a five-year break while I lived in the UK, but even then I defined myself as a permanent opponent of Fidesz and the Orbán system. And now, for the first time in my life, the party I voted for actually won. It is a very strange feeling. I also feel that although 16 years were taken from us, there is still a chance for Hungary to move onto a better path and once again become a European, democratic — or at least more democratic — country.

Another funny moment came before the election, when I asked on Reddit: “How much do you think the forint will strengthen if Tisza wins?” I got plenty of replies saying, “it is already priced in.” Then suddenly: a 4% strengthening in a single week, and who knows how much further the forint can go. It really resembled what happened in Poland in autumn 2023: once the Polish far right lost and a new government came in, the zloty immediately strengthened by a few percent.

I would also like to share a personal story that I could not talk about until now, but which I now believe is safe to discuss. One reason I had focused less on finance until recently was that in January and February I was working on a non-public project. It was an Election Integrity Simulation in which 25 experts modelled a narrow Tisza victory. I enjoyed this work enormously because I had the chance to work with well-known people such as András Rácz, and over the course of a nine-hour simulation game — a wargame — we tested how different actors in public life might behave. The most incredible part was that the participants accidentally predicted reality several times — even though that was not their main task — including a false-flag operation and campaign letters sent out by MVM. I am very glad this simulation remained only a counterfactual scenario, but designing and then facilitating a game like this was a fantastic experience.

July update: we also recorded a short podcast in which we discuss the experience in detail. If you are interested, you can watch it here.

So what does the future hold for me, one week after the election victory? I still do not really know; I am still somewhat in shock over Tisza’s win. One thing is certain: I do not have to move to Vienna, which I am pleased about. I do not yet know what I would like to do under the new government, although political work still appeals to me. I suppose that will become clear with time. I still have plenty of time to choose a direction.